Jump to content

Recommended Posts

My friends, I don't make light of the risk to older people, or those with existing health issues (particularly respiratory). My main point is that is simply is NOT as more lethal vs any other flu. Yes, more contagious. So you could say on that note more lethal, but for otherwise healthy people, no. Hearts out to Italy, which is harder hit for unknown reasons. My comments refer to the US only:

Here's where most miscalculate mortality in the "numbers": the huge majority of infected (story this week estimates as high as 86%), don't know they have it. Either their symptoms are mild ( not everyone is bedridden by Corona) or they get over it in 2 days at home, not seeing a doctor. SO, the calculated mortality rate is vastly over-estimated. Net mortality will be 1 to 1.5% of reported cases. Still very average for garden variety flu. Actually mortality will be far below 1%. Simple numbers...even if the estimate is 50% cases unreported.

Stay healthy!

Share this post


Link to post

The problem, Don, is that a really large number of persons needs intensive care. And they need it all together and at the same time and every day you have double as many person needing the same. It is unique.

So you better space the "arrivals" at the hospitals diluting the infections or more people dies just because they cannot get a bed, these are not only old and sick.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
44 minutes ago, Don Seidel said:

 Hearts out to Italy, which is harder hit for unknown reasons.

 

Italy, then Spain, then France. Most hit right now.

Warm folks with a habit of kissing and hugging. Bless our friendliness, it is killing us.

Share this post


Link to post
Posted (edited)

Today all the kids are online- taking their first online classes,

iPads, iPhones hooked up to the tv with a dongle, whatever we can muster.

We're working and teaching remotely to students across the country - we're even setting up to host morning Alexander Technique / Yoga sunrise warmups to keep students uplifted, together & positive and working. All while maintaining (or trying to maintain) a 2m distance and wishing our bars of soap a double happy birthday several times a day and trying not to snack through all the excess treats we've stocked up on in one day.

But the food stores here (in Florida) are staying open so panic-hoarding seems silly. Signs of warning are appearing, people are beginning to organize shopping for older neighbours and people are using the words quarantine, social, testing, in conversation with a weighted familiarity never imagined before.

I really understand the perspective Don is articulating of trying to calibrate the response. However I believe the correct calibration is to take this as seriously as we can as early as we can and to learn as much as we can from the unfortunate people for whom the Tsunami arrived without such warning.

 

We're so lucky in the US that we do have technology to work remotely, good food supply chains and TIME. We've known about this since January people. The water's rising at our feet now. My heart goes out to those hit early - at least we have an opportunity to prepare and to control the power of the surge simply by slowing the tide and practicing what are pretty basic precautions.

 

Minimize contacts - Keep our distance - Wash our hands - Clean handled surfaces - & see the sky.

It will pass and the world will be closer for it.

 

Brian

Edited by bcd
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post

What I am reading is that the normal run of the mill flu kills about 0.1% of those affected and the Corona 1% more or maybe a bit less depending on the age and overall health of the population.  Up to 45 million people get the flu every year in the US and there is a vaccine for it.  None for Corona and it is 3 times more contagious.   

Share this post


Link to post

Google the fascinating story of overrun field hospitals dealing w/ Spanish Flu. Doctors has to put infected patients outside in sun and fresh air. They were shocked to find those outside recovered 40% better than those inside. Part of the downside of modern living: too much indoors !

Share this post


Link to post

@Don Seidel yep and the worlds a very different place than 100 years ago, the way we work, the way we travel, our infrastructures are designed for mass movement over short and long distances, populations are much higher, density of people in towns and cities is higher, it's an ideal world if you're a tiny virus wanting to travel a little, in fact it's probably the perfect world for a nasty little virus to get to work and do its thing 

Share this post


Link to post

YES! even the Chinese projects in Africa....massive numbers of workers are bringing new illnesses that previously were unknown to the continent. The Law of Unintended Consequences strikes often.

Share this post


Link to post
Posted (edited)

So amazing what a genius is amongst our community in this Don Seidel. Hey Don, I hope your architecture is better than your conspiracy theorizing, though some how I doubt it.

Edited by Andrew Pollock

Share this post


Link to post

Andrew, lighten up on the Caffeine! VW forums are not the place for personal attacks.

What conspiracy theory? Just noting a news story about new illnesses showing up on the African continent as a result of large numbers of people arriving from other parts of the world. This is completely expected. Cultures previously not exposed to each other share germs and viruses which previously they developed immunity for. Repeated many times in history.

Share this post


Link to post
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

 

7150 Riverwood Drive, Columbia, Maryland 21046, USA   |   Contact Us:   410-290-5114

 

© 2018 Vectorworks, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Vectorworks, Inc. is part of the Nemetschek Group.

×
×
  • Create New...